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          《海龟交易法则》读书笔记
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        <h1 id="《海龟交易法则》读书笔记"><a href="#《海龟交易法则》读书笔记" class="headerlink" title="《海龟交易法则》读书笔记"></a>《海龟交易法则》读书笔记</h1><h1 id="前言"><a href="#前言" class="headerlink" title="前言"></a>前言</h1><p>  同样是评论推荐的一本书，实际看了一下确实挺不错的，作者讲述了如何用系统分析进行投资，以及投资当中如何设置止损线，如何止盈等等，当然对于作者的图表法粗略看看就行，美丽国的股票和市场都是十分成熟，我们只需要学习如何应用“海龟交易法”以及如何培养投资属于自己的投资从策略则即可。</p>
<p>  另外，让作者走上投机道路的第一本书就是《股票作手回忆录》，由于十分崇拜利弗莫尔所以对于投机有了兴趣。这里也推荐读者看看这本书。</p>
<a id="more"></a>

<h1 id="推荐语"><a href="#推荐语" class="headerlink" title="推荐语"></a>推荐语</h1><p>  海龟交易法则是作者经过亲身经历之后一套投资系统法则，虽然按照现代的眼光来看已经十分过时了，但是这本书的重点不在于交易法则，而是在于作者对于市场的分析以及人的心理分析，这是值得每一个人学习内容，也是书中真正值得学习和了解的内容。</p>
<h1 id="资源链接"><a href="#资源链接" class="headerlink" title="资源链接"></a>资源链接</h1><blockquote>
<p>链接：<span class="exturl" data-url="aHR0cHM6Ly9wYW4uYmFpZHUuY29tL3MvMXlPRlE3Y2RQbHM5S1FWdnc4S1dfS1E=" title="https://pan.baidu.com/s/1yOFQ7cdPls9KQVvw8KW_KQ">https://pan.baidu.com/s/1yOFQ7cdPls9KQVvw8KW_KQ<i class="fa fa-external-link"></i></span><br>提取码：4u54<br>–来自百度网盘超级会员V6的分享</p>
</blockquote>
<h1 id="个人评价"><a href="#个人评价" class="headerlink" title="个人评价"></a>个人评价</h1><p>​    投资的策略总是需要随机应变的，而拥有和掌握一套自己的投资策略也是十分有必要的，如果你和趋势做朋友，趋势会帮你带来财富，但是如果你没有坚守你的策略，趋势往往会朝你最不希望的方向发展，说服自己做正确的交易不难，但是说服自己坚定不移的在正确交易上坚持很难，一旦自己的投资超过了自己的风险抵抗，就要缩紧的钱包和开销，并且及时从错误的交易当中脱身。</p>
<p>​    《海龟交易法则》说的是一切的投资都要付出代价，作为一个投资者一定要有自己清晰的头脑。</p>
<h1 id="海龟交易法则"><a href="#海龟交易法则" class="headerlink" title="海龟交易法则"></a>海龟交易法则</h1><h2 id="原版海龟交易法则"><a href="#原版海龟交易法则" class="headerlink" title="原版海龟交易法则"></a>原版海龟交易法则</h2><p>  虽然海龟交易法则在现代已经完全不适用了，但是在思想上面还是非常具有参考价值的，另外，系统必须要时刻更新紧跟时代才不会失效，同时因为各种效应关系，一旦你的系统被人模仿或者参考，它将会逐渐失效。</p>
<p>  原版的海龟交易法则在书本的最后一节，如果觉得这本书讲的系统十分复杂和难以理解可以直接看书本的最后一章内容。</p>
<h2 id="是什么？"><a href="#是什么？" class="headerlink" title="是什么？"></a>是什么？</h2><p>  海龟交易法则是根据一套理论为指导的投资方针，包含风险，时机，投资策略，退场策略，心理博弈，预期差异和系统分析等几个方面，目的是为了引导投资者作具备投资期望的交易。</p>
<h2 id="海龟培训要点"><a href="#海龟培训要点" class="headerlink" title="海龟培训要点"></a>海龟培训要点</h2><ol>
<li><p>掌握优势：寻找一个正期望值的策略</p>
</li>
<li><p>管理风险：一旦投资超过风险，立即止损</p>
</li>
<li><p>坚定不移：一旦确定自己的策略就坚定的执行，孤身作战</p>
</li>
<li><p>简单明了：抓住每一个趋势，趋势会是你的朋友</p>
</li>
</ol>
<h2 id="情绪陷阱"><a href="#情绪陷阱" class="headerlink" title="情绪陷阱"></a>情绪陷阱</h2><p>  在投资和交易的过程，人最容易受到下面的感情所影响，所有的市场交易都脱离不了下面这几点：</p>
<ul>
<li><p>希望：购买之后，立刻上涨</p>
</li>
<li><p>绝望：选择有误，一直在赔钱</p>
</li>
<li><p>贪心：赚翻了，我要加仓</p>
</li>
<li><p>恐惧：再也不碰了</p>
<p>人一旦陷入了情绪陷阱是很难脱离出来的，人类害怕的是未知以及预期落差，未知指的是将钱投入进去之后不知道市场的运行，而预期落差则是在事态朝着自己最不想看到的方向发展的时候出现。</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="非理性效应"><a href="#非理性效应" class="headerlink" title="非理性效应"></a>非理性效应</h2><p>  在《海龟交易法则》一本书中提到了各种效应的机制，下面这些效应是投资过程中需要小心如下的内容，这里个人的整体概括是非理性效应：</p>
<ul>
<li><p>损失厌恶：对于损失强烈厌恶，不赔钱比不赚钱更重要</p>
</li>
<li><p>沉默成本：更重视已经投入的，而不是未来投入的</p>
</li>
<li><p>处置效应：过早兑现收益但是过晚的止损</p>
</li>
<li><p>近期偏好：更重视近期数据，而不看历史的数据</p>
</li>
<li><p>潮流效应：跟风效应</p>
</li>
<li><p>信奉小数法则：从小道消息盖棺定论。</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="交易者，投机商，帽客"><a href="#交易者，投机商，帽客" class="headerlink" title="交易者，投机商，帽客"></a>交易者，投机商，帽客</h2><p>  “海龟交易时代”基本的角色就是交易者，投机商和帽客，当然这些都已经是历史了，但是了解下历史也挺有意思的。</p>
<p>  这三者其实是互相牵制的关系，虽然本质上都是在交易，但是所站的角度各不相同。书中讲的是期货交易，所以会存在多方，并且期货是存在做多和做空的，而股票则不行。</p>
<p>  交易者的角度是在对冲交易时候紧盯着汇率，让汇率在自己设想的角度浮动，所做的交易都是为了降低风险。</p>
<p>  而帽客则是希望汇差的波动，比如在战争的时期，通过汇率的快速变化赚保证金等等。</p>
<p>  投机者则是我们常见的投机交易，即买入做多，低买高卖，或者借贷买入，低价赎回，高贷低还。</p>
<h2 id="作者的实践"><a href="#作者的实践" class="headerlink" title="作者的实践"></a>作者的实践</h2><p>  令人讽刺的是在海龟的第一次模拟实战中受海龟交易法则培训的所有人当中只有作者坚持了海龟交易法则并且在合适的实际低点买入高点卖出，然而奇怪的是和作者一起上课学习海龟交易法则的同学都在交易的过程中都没有抵抗住心理上的博弈。</p>
<p>  从作者的个人感悟也可以看出，其实投机交易<strong>多数人是亏钱</strong>的，少数人可以“蹭”一点利益，并且如果没有天赋，多数人只能通过不断的学习和观察研究才能掌握到投资的技巧，当然和有天赋的人也是在不断的观察和思考中学习提高的，但是总的来说人和人上限是不一样的。</p>
<h2 id="海龟的投资方式"><a href="#海龟的投资方式" class="headerlink" title="海龟的投资方式"></a>海龟的投资方式</h2><p>  海龟的投资方式讲究的是趋势的交易，趋势的交易则非常的讲究时机，在时机不成熟的时候交易，不管怎么投入都是亏损，但是一旦根据趋势进行交易，则无论什么时候入场都是赚的，当然分析趋势是最难的一个点，并且一旦失去趋势要立刻止损。海龟交易的方式并不是在绝对“赚”的点上进行投入，甚至30天里面又20天是在亏钱，这时候能顶住压力的人才能最终赚钱。最后，<strong>如果顺应趋势，趋势将会是你的朋友</strong>。</p>
<h1 id="历史教训"><a href="#历史教训" class="headerlink" title="历史教训"></a>历史教训</h1><p>  需要注意的是永远不要妄想现在会和历史一模一样，但是现在的市场规律可以从过去察觉，因为正如几次金融危机一样人类总是在重复犯同样的错误，分析历史是十分重要的，一个合格的投资者要学会从历史教训和走势图中看到市场的变化规律。</p>
<p>​    虽然市场总是存在着不可知和变动性，但是从历史教训中预测出一个期望值为正的交易十分重要。</p>
<h1 id="风险控制"><a href="#风险控制" class="headerlink" title="风险控制"></a>风险控制</h1><p>  风险控制也是书中重要的一节内容，很多的投资者都是将钱投进市场开始祈祷，但市场的走向和他们的想法不符的时候，这时候恐惧和忧虑会代替大脑思考，此时人已经失去了基本的判断，听凭感情和自己的内心的臆测，所以设置一个风险的控制是很有必要的。</p>
<p>  风险控制意味着在自己亏损的时候毫无犹豫的跳出来， 一旦超过自己的风险控制范围不管市场如何利好，哪怕市场是一个正期望值的市场，此时也要尽快退出，因为一旦超过风险之后，理性的思考会被感性左右，和《股票做手回忆录》类似，在作者穷途末路的时候，自己无论又多少天赋和本领，也会被破产这两个字影响自己的情感判断。</p>
<p>  说服自己做正确投资比说服自己早早退出要容易太多。</p>
<h1 id="应用系统投资法则"><a href="#应用系统投资法则" class="headerlink" title="应用系统投资法则"></a>应用系统投资法则</h1><p>  作者在本书的后文使用了大量的系统和曲线分析法，比如支撑点和突破点等专业术语，个人认为单靠书中的寥寥几笔是不能完全说明的，并且内容也不是必须的，这里个人参考了更多的是关于作者对于投资者的心理分析入手，比如在什么时候应该静静等待，以及找到自己心理能承受的风险以及寻找失去趋势的时机，对于系统的分析一切分析都是建立在一套合理的投资机制和风险管理机制之下的。作者曾经也在一天之内亏损自己的所有财产并且没有任何的反应机会。所以市场有风险，入市须谨慎。</p>
<h1 id="总结"><a href="#总结" class="headerlink" title="总结"></a>总结</h1><p>  总之《海龟交易法则》这本书是一本读完绝对会有收获的书，这本书能帮你了解一个系统的投资规则，建立一份属于自己的投资策略以及风险控制策略是非常重要的，也是这本书所要传达的重点。</p>
<h1 id="写在最后"><a href="#写在最后" class="headerlink" title="写在最后"></a>写在最后</h1><p>  最近忙着写技术文，这篇读书笔记也拖了比较久….</p>
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